Is a 2030 petrol and diesel car sales ban realistic or not?
The UK Government, like many governments around the world, is keen to support the transition to zero emissions and phase out the sales of petrol and diesel cars.
In 2020, the Conservative government announced the end of new petrol and diesel car sales in the UK by 2030. But by 2023, the message was already starting to change. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a delay for the ban until 2035, a decision which was met with both dismay and delight.
Some OEMs were frustrated by the change in direction, and a group of environment NGOs, including Transport & Environment, Campaign for Better Transport and Greenpeace UK, condemned the government’s plans, writing in a letter, “The delay to 2035 would blow a massive hole in any serious attempt to reach net zero emissions by 2050.”
Less than eighteen months later, the now Labour government has said it will reinstate the 2030 date and launched a public consultation to seek views on “how to restore the 2030 phase out date for new purely petrol and diesel cars and make the transition to zero emission vehicles a success.”
In her ministerial foreword, the Secretary of State for Transport, Rt Hon Heidi Alexander MP, is crystal clear: "All new cars and vans will need to be 100% zero emission by 2035. And no new petrol or diesel cars will be sold after 2030.”
With just five years to go, is a 2030 ban even realistic anymore? Will workshops and motorists be ready?
According to European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) data, petrol and diesel cars still accounted for over a third of all new UK registrations in 2024 at 36.5%. Undoubtedly, their share of sales has declined since the ban was announced in 2020, but there is still a long way to go. Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) accounted for 35.3% of registrations, and Plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) accounted for 8.6%, so vehicles with some form of internal combustion engine still accounted for 80% of new car registrations in the last twelve months.
Add the fact that the vehicle parc is ageing, and internal combustion engines will be around for many years to come, whether the ban begins in 2030, 2035 or beyond.
According to the latest ACEA Vehicles in Use 2025 report, passenger cars in the UK are now, on average, 10.6 years old, vans 9.8, trucks 11.6 and buses sixteen years old. These figures show a marked rise since 2019, when UK cars were, on average, eight years old, vans 7.8, medium and heavy commercial vehicles 7.4, and buses were 9.8 years old.
Duckhams Global CEO Mike Bewsey said, “It is no surprise that electric vehicle uptake is falling well short of the government's mandated targets. Improved reliability of cars, ongoing pressures on household spending, and the lack of charging infrastructure and tax incentives all mean motorists are in no rush to make the switch.
Whilst battery electric vehicles are increasing their share of new car sales, petrol is still a popular choice for new car registrations. Diesel continues to dominate new van, truck and bus registrations. These vehicles will still be on our roads by 2035 and beyond.
Lubricant companies are closely watching developments and working with OEMs and trade partners to cater to the diverse and ageing vehicles on our roads.”